catalogue of errors

it takes a wise man to learn from his mistakes, but an even wiser man to learn from others. - zen proverb

over the past 2 years lovelace project has experienced some successes and some failures in the pursuit of profit in the horse racing betting markets. here is a list of the major errors made in this time.

1. not considering betfair sp forecast error. i have some strategies based on placing bets at certain price ranges. i first encountered the betfair sp forecast error early 2019 when betting on usa racing leading to a loss of £300. unfortunately , i repeated this error on uk in autumn 2020 partly responsible for a £4,000 loss

2. vairiable staking. i use a strategy with a very high strike rate with a small win each time but occasional very large loss. january 2019 with limited capital i chose to deply this strategy using a continuous compounding staking strategy. the bank grew with profits and new capital and so did the stake size when i hit a bad month. loss in may 2019 was £4,500

3. boylesports evening prices worse than bet365. loss £1,500 july 2020

4. low liquidity at betfair sp. part responsible for the £4,000 loss in autumn 2020 (mentioned in #1)